Every system in the league

Odds first, then ceiling

Who counts.A prospect is anyone who would still be a rookie under the NHL's Calder rules: no more than 25 games in any earlier season, never six or more in two earlier seasons, and younger than 26 on September 15. Signed prospects qualify whether drafted or not, and so do unsigned picks while the club that drafted them still holds their rights. The Under 23 list adds NHL regulars 23 and under, scored the same way.

Draft position is where it starts. On draft day the pick is most of what anyone knows. A separate model is fitted for each season after the draft, so the weight on the pick fades as production arrives, at whatever rate the history says it should.

Production is converted, then compared with his age. Points in each league are translated to an NHL equivalent with league factors, then scored against players the same age and position that season. A point a game at 17 and a point a game at 20 are different things. Defensemen are modeled separately, which is what lets scoring count for less on the blue line. Goalies are measured on save percentage against their league and season.

Comparables say what he becomes. The 25 most similar past prospects at the same stage set the range of outcomes and the arrival year. A full-time NHL player is one who reached 200 games by 26 (100 by 27 for a goalie); everyone else, including the ones who played a handful of games, is a miss, and the model is trained on every pick since 2008 — misses included.

The score. The chance he becomes a regular, times where his comparables who made it landed among regulars at their position, as a percentile of every prospect in the league. A miss counts as zero. Putting each position on its own scale first is what lets forwards, defensemen and goalies share one list.

Goalies.The least certain projections here. Goaltending develops late, the samples are small, and there are far fewer goalies to learn from — read a goalie's score with a wider margin than a skater's.