WARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath Buffalo
Justin Carbonneau
Right wing · STL · QMJHL

Justin Carbonneau

Age
19
Height
6'1"
Weight
203 lb
Shoots
R
Drafted
2025, round 1, 19th overall
Born
CAN
2026-27
AHL · Springfield Thunderbirds
Games
4
Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Prospect score · 2026-27
High end

49th of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

2nd in the STL system · 2nd among its forwards

+1.0WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds71%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds41%Better than the typical NHL regular among forwards
Arrival2028-29The season his comps who made it typically became regulars
WAR a season if he sticks−0.1+1.0+1.6Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 8 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-10+1+215161718Age2022-23, age 15, 55 GP: +0.68 vs. his age group (0.11 NHL-equivalent points per game)2023-24, age 16, 68 GP: +0.53 vs. his age group (0.14 NHL-equivalent points per game)2024-25, age 17, 62 GP: +1.13 vs. his age group (0.23 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 18, 60 GP: +0.38 vs. his age group (0.21 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Marcus Johansson2009 · #24 · at 1974%5301058Regular+1.60
2Sonny Milano2014 · #16 · at 1970%261344Regular+0.79
3Matt Puempel2011 · #24 · at 1966%8787Did not stick—
4Jacob Josefson2009 · #20 · at 1964%315315Regular−0.15
5Stefan Noesen2011 · #21 · at 1963%199486Regular after 26—
6Jakub Vrana2014 · #13 · at 1961%346406Regular+1.45
7Beau Bennett2010 · #20 · at 1959%200200Regular+0.10
8Dylan Larkin2014 · #15 · at 1958%584813Regular+1.13
9Robert Thomas2017 · #20 · at 1958%530537Regular+1.46
10Colin White2015 · #21 · at 1958%320323Regular+0.31
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27AHL · Springfield Thunderbirds42138
2025-26QMJHL · Blainville-Boisbriand Armada6051298064
2024-25QMJHL · Blainville-Boisbriand Armada6246438961
2024-25Prospects Challenge · Team CHL20222
2023-24QMJHL · Blainville-Boisbriand Armada6831285932
2022-23WHC-17 · Canada White U1760112
2022-23QMJHL · Rouyn-Noranda Huskies325152010
2022-23QM18AAA · Lévis Chevaliers2315142938
2021-22QM18AAA · Lévis Chevaliers408324032
2019-20QBAAA · Pointe-Lévy Corsaires Bantam AAA22941310
2018-19QC Int PW · Pointe-Lévy Corsaires20000

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work