WARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath BuffaloWARpath Buffalo
Colten Ellis
Goaltender · BUF · NHL

Colten Ellis

Age
25
Height
6'1"
Weight
194 lb
Catches
L
Drafted
2019, round 3, 93rd overall
Born
CAN
2026-27
NHL · Buffalo Sabres
Games
3
Save pct
.864
GAA
3.19

His NHL ratings and game log →

Prospect score · 2026-27
High end

39th of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

3rd in the BUF system · 1st among its goalies

+2.3WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds68%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 100 games by 27
Impact odds44%Better than the typical NHL regular among goalies
Arrival2027-28The season his comps who made it typically became regulars
WAR a season if he sticks+0.4+2.3+5.0Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 7 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His save percentage, adjusted for league, against every goalie his age that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-2-10+1+2161718192021222324Age2017-18, age 16, 51 GP: +1.72 vs. his age group2018-19, age 17, 46 GP: +0.48 vs. his age group2019-20, age 18, 29 GP: -0.31 vs. his age group2020-21, age 19, 24 GP: +1.59 vs. his age group2021-22, age 20, 34 GP: +0.11 vs. his age group2022-23, age 21, 27 GP: -1.06 vs. his age group2023-24, age 22, 37 GP: +1.56 vs. his age group2024-25, age 23, 42 GP: +1.31 vs. his age group2025-26, age 24, 16 GP: +0.60 vs. his age group
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 27: 100 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 27Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Philipp Grubauer2010 · #112 · at 2338%174407Regular+3.37
2Adin Hill2015 · #76 · at 2433%136216Regular+0.44
3Darcy Kuemper2009 · #161 · at 2431%131493Regular−0.02
4Juuse Saros2013 · #99 · at 2230%286473Regular+3.37
5Matt Hackett2009 · #77 · at 2329%2626Did not stick—
6Petr Mrazek2010 · #141 · at 2228%263438Regular+2.35
7Kevin Poulin2008 · #126 · at 2227%5050Did not stick—
8Laurent Brossoit2011 · #164 · at 2327%82141Regular after 27—
9Tristan Jarry2013 · #44 · at 2326%206328Regular+0.83
10Linus Ullmark2012 · #163 · at 2425%117346Regular+1.83
Season by season
SeasonGPRecordSv%GAASO
2026-27NHL · Buffalo Sabres31-1-0.8643.190
2025-26NHL · Buffalo Sabres168-4-2.9032.901
2024-25AHL · Springfield Thunderbirds4222-14-2.9222.633
2023-24ECHL · Orlando Solar Bears2112-5-1.9232.451
2023-24AHL · Springfield Thunderbirds167-9-0.9242.890
2022-23ECHL · Tulsa Oilers2712-9-5.8883.460
2021-22ECHL · Worcester Railers3415-13-5.9053.211
2021-22AHL · Springfield Thunderbirds61-3-2.8803.930
2020-21QMJHL · Charlottetown Islanders2423-1-0.9261.787
2019-20QMJHL · Rimouski Océanic2918-7-3.9042.412
2018-19QMJHL · Rimouski Océanic4627-15-2.9102.473
2017-18WJC-18 · Canada U1822-0-0.8873.500
2017-18QMJHL · Rimouski Océanic5133-8-6.9132.356
2016-17QMJHL · Cape Breton Eagles32-0-0.8852.500
2016-17NSU18MHL · Cape Breton West Islanders U181514-1-0.9202.053
2015-16NSU18MHL · Cape Breton West Islanders U18185-12-0.8903.701
2014-15NSU15MHL · Nova Jr. X Men U152421-3-0—1.613
2013-14NSU15MHL · Nova Jr. X Men U15130-0-0—2.080

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. Goalie projections carry the widest error on the site — goaltending develops late, and there are few goalies to learn from. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work