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Tynan Lawrence
Center · STL · NCAA

Tynan Lawrence

Age
18
Height
6'1"
Weight
185 lb
Shoots
L
Drafted
2026, round 1, 11th overall
Born
CAN
2026-27
NCAA · Boston Univ.
Games
2
Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Prospect score · 2026-27
High end

44th of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

1st in the STL system · 1st among its forwards

+0.9WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds70%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds36%Better than the typical NHL regular among forwards
Arrival2028-29The season his comps who made it typically became regulars
WAR a season if he sticks+0.2+0.9+2.1Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 8 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-10+1+2151617Age2023-24, age 15, 50 GP: -0.42 vs. his age group (0.06 NHL-equivalent points per game)2024-25, age 16, 56 GP: +1.01 vs. his age group (0.17 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 17, 31 GP: +0.24 vs. his age group (0.15 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Cody Hodgson2008 · #10 · at 1861%328328Regular+0.78
2Alexander Burmistrov2010 · #8 · at 1858%348348Regular+0.26
3Lias Andersson2017 · #7 · at 1857%110110Did not stick—
4Louis Leblanc2009 · #18 · at 1855%5050Did not stick—
5Jake DeBrusk2015 · #14 · at 1853%465635Regular+1.76
6Nick Schmaltz2014 · #20 · at 1853%427678Regular+1.39
7Martin Necas2017 · #12 · at 1852%519526Regular+2.10
8Casey Mittelstadt2017 · #8 · at 1851%509516Regular+0.86
9Michael McLeod2016 · #12 · at 1850%287287Regular+0.22
10Tyson Jost2016 · #10 · at 1850%495564Regular+0.45
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27NCAA · Boston Univ.22130
2025-26USHL · Muskegon Lumberjacks13107176
2025-26NCAA · Boston Univ.182572
2025-26Hlinka Gretzky Cup · Canada U1851236
2024-25USHL · Muskegon Lumberjacks5625295449
2023-24YOG · Canada U1642242
2023-24US 16U Nationals · Shattuck St. Mary's 16U AAA43030
2023-2416U AAA · Shattuck St. Mary's 16U AAA502227494
2022-23WSI U15 · Pro Hockey Selects U1573360
2022-23US 14U Nationals · Shattuck St. Mary's 14U AAA43690
2022-23NAPHL 14U · Shattuck St. Mary's 14U AAA34260
2022-23John Reid Memorial · Shattuck St. Mary's 14U AAA647112
2022-2314U AAA · Shattuck St. Mary's 14U AAA563756934
2021-22NBU15AAAHL · Fredericton Blues U15 AAA272734618
2020-21NBU15AAAHL · Fredericton Blues U15 AAA1740410
2017-18Brick Invitational · Boston Jr. Bruins60220

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work