Ethan Belchetz
- Age
- 18
- Height
- 6'5"
- Weight
- 228 lb
- Shoots
- L
- Drafted
- 2026, round 1, 17th overall
- Born
- CAN
- 2026-27
- NCAA · Michigan State Univ.
- Games
- 2
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Points
- 2
Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 7 became full-time NHL players.
His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.
Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.
| # | Player | Match | NHL GP by 26 | Career NHL GP | Outcome | WAR a season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Colborne2008 · #16 · at 18 | 70% | 295 | 295 | Regular | +0.61 |
| 2 | Julien Gauthier2016 · #21 · at 18 | 60% | 181 | 181 | Did not stick | — |
| 3 | Anthony Mantha2013 · #20 · at 18 | 55% | 353 | 595 | Regular | +1.29 |
| 4 | Mikko Rantanen2015 · #10 · at 18 | 54% | 570 | 723 | Regular | +3.19 |
| 5 | Frederik Gauthier2013 · #21 · at 18 | 54% | 178 | 178 | Did not stick | — |
| 6 | Chris Kreider2009 · #19 · at 18 | 52% | 381 | 965 | Regular | +1.25 |
| 7 | Michael Rasmussen2017 · #9 · at 18 | 52% | 454 | 461 | Regular | −0.08 |
| 8 | Brendan Gaunce2012 · #26 · at 18 | 50% | 118 | 214 | Regular after 26 | — |
| 9 | Tage Thompson2016 · #26 · at 18 | 49% | 448 | 537 | Regular | +1.43 |
| 10 | Gabriel Vilardi2017 · #11 · at 18 | 49% | 352 | 359 | Regular | +1.89 |
| Season | GP | G | A | Pts | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27NCAA · Michigan State Univ. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 2025-26Prospects Challenge · Team CHL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025-26OHL · Windsor Spitfires | 57 | 34 | 25 | 59 | 45 |
| 2025-26Hlinka Gretzky Cup · Canada U18 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 2024-25OHL · Windsor Spitfires | 56 | 17 | 21 | 38 | 48 |
| 2023-24OMHA U16 · Oakville Rangers U16 AAA | 34 | 46 | 38 | 84 | 44 |
| 2023-24OHL Cup · Oakville Rangers U16 AAA | 7 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 2 |
| 2023-24GOJHL · Hamilton Kilty B's | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2022-23WSI U15 · Draftday Selects U15 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 6 |
| 2022-23SCTA U16 · Oakville Rangers U16 AAA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2022-23SCTA U15 · Oakville Rangers U15 AAA | 33 | 20 | 22 | 42 | 22 |
| 2021-22SCTA U15 · Oakville Rangers U15 AAA | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 2021-22SCTA U14 · Oakville Rangers U14 AAA | 28 | 32 | 23 | 55 | 21 |
The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work