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The Playoff Push · 2026-27

The Playoff Push

Where the Sabres stand in the race, read against what playoff teams have looked like at the same point of every full season since 2010-11.

The Road Trip · Nov 12–22

6 games. 12 points. Thanksgiving ahead.

01

Points banked

1/120-0-1 in 1 game
02

Target

10/129 more of the last 10 projects a playoff spot on Thanksgiving
03

Playoff odds

27%−2from 29% at the start
04

Road trip · proj

6/12points25%odds after
05

Trip ledger

1 of 12 pts
Target 10

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06

The games

Objective · profile · status

Each game's objective comes from the model's odds the morning of it: how likely a win is, how far a win and a regulation loss sit apart next to the trip's other games, and who the opponent is.

  1. G01 · @CHINov 12Need itThe likeliest two points of the trip, against a team outside the East race. Buffalo needs them, plain and simple.
    Odds
    Favored
    Opp
    West
    Stakes
    Standard
    Rest
    Rested
    OTL 2-3Got halfC-Odds 29% → 28%
  2. G02 · @DALNov 14Bonus pointsUnderdogs. Whatever they take here is gravy, so long as they bank the games they should win.
    Odds
    Underdog
    Opp
    West
    Stakes
    Standard
    Rest
    Rested
    Next · Sat 8:00 PM
  3. G03 · @PHINov 17Take care of businessFavored against an East team. Win the games you're supposed to, and the race does the rest.
    Odds
    Favored
    Opp
    East
    Stakes
    Standard
    Rest
    Rested
    Tue Nov 17
  4. G04 · @WSHNov 19Wild-card tug-of-warNot a rival and not in the division, but Washington is pulling for the same wild-card seat. Win it and the gap moves both ways.
    Odds
    Toss-up
    Opp
    East rival
    Stakes
    Big
    Rest
    Rested
    Thu Nov 19
  5. G05 · @FLANov 21Steal from a rivalUnderdogs against a team they're chasing. Any points here come straight out of a rival's pocket.
    Odds
    Underdog
    Opp
    East rival
    Stakes
    Biggest
    Rest
    Rested
    Sat Nov 21
  6. G06 · @TBLNov 22RevengeSettle the score with Tampa Bay to close the trip, in their building.
    Odds
    Underdog
    Opp
    East
    Stakes
    Standard
    Rest
    B2B
    Sun Nov 22
07

Every way the trip can end

As of Nov 14

How often each trip total came up in 10,000 simulated seasons. Green: that total has them in a spot on Thanksgiving half the time or more. Under each: the playoff odds.

08

Build your own trip

Live estimate

The games already played are locked in. The rest start at the result the model leans toward; tap to change them and watch the odds move.

  1. @ CHINov 12 · FinalOTL 2-3 · +1
  2. @ DALNov 14 · Bonus points
  3. @ PHINov 17 · Take care of business
  4. @ WSHNov 19 · Wild-card tug-of-war
  5. @ FLANov 21 · Steal from a rival
  6. @ TBLNov 22 · Revenge
The model's trip3 / 121 banked + 2 picked
Playoff odds
17%
−9 vs 27% today
On Thanksgiving
Out, 7 points back
Teams there on Thanksgiving made the playoffs 4% of the time
  1. OTTWC 132
  2. FLAWC 230
  3. WSH29
  4. NYI27
  5. BUF23
  6. TOR22
  7. PIT22
History
22%
of teams with 22 points after 24 games made the playoffs

Estimated from this morning's projections: the Sabres' projected finish moved by how far your results beat or miss their pace, and the East projected to Thanksgiving with every other team at its own pace (and the Sabres at theirs for any game after the trip).

Subscribers · what each game is worth

Win · OT loss · regulation loss
What every game is worth

The odds after a win, an overtime loss and a regulation loss for every game left, who to root for on nights the Sabres are off, and the games that matter most.

09

Report card

Game grades, averaged over the trip
Trip gradeC-
  1. OTL 2-3C-
Carrying the trip
#PlayerLineGPGrade
01Owen Power1G 0A1B-
02Josh Norris0G 1A1C+
03Tage Thompson1G 0A1C+
The trip has gone past
#PlayerLineGPGrade
01Noah Ostlund0G 0A1D-
02Jason Zucker0G 0A1D+
03Louis Crevier0G 0A1D+

The team grade is the WAR Box's: production, offense, defense and goaltending. How grades work

10

Then Thanksgiving

Made the playoffs, since 2010-11

After the trip: vs NYR (Wed Nov 25). Then the Thanksgiving checkpoint. How often teams in each spot that day made the playoffs:

  • In a spot by 5 or more90%
  • In a spot by 4 or fewer67%
  • Out by 2 or fewer44%
  • Out by 3 to 621%
  • Out by 7 or more4%

The calls come from the model's odds the morning of each game. The odds by trip total come from the same 10,000 simulated seasons as the playoff odds, grouped by the points the Sabres took from the trip, so a big trip also tends to be one where they played better. The race · How the numbers work