The Playoff Push
Where the Sabres stand in the race, read against what playoff teams have looked like at the same point of every full season since 2010-11.
1 point behind the last team in
- Record8-6-3 19 ptsOn pace for 94, projected for 92
- To reach 9535-25-7 from hereThe East's usual cutline over 84 games, a .567 points percentage
- History53% made itTeams with 19 points (one either way) after 17 games since 2010-11, 118 of them
The odds after a win, an overtime loss and a regulation loss for every game left, who to root for on nights the Sabres are off, and the games that matter most.
The Eastern Conference as if the season ended today, or as the simulations project it to finish: the top three in each division and two wild cards. Proj is the projected final points, Rtg the team's rating (0-100, how strong its lineup plays), the two things behind the odds.
Atlantictop three
BOS2718103210480%+10
MTL251774510477%±0
TBL241799010990%−2Metropolitantop three
CAR301913100123>99%±0
NJD261889411395%+4
NYR211810689660%+3Wild cardsthe next two by points
OTTWC1231898110376%−1
FLAWC220187979863%−3OutBUF the closest, 1 point back
BUF19176559238%−6
WSH18158429451%+3
TOR18197268111%−3
NYI17165298725%+2
DET1718516776%−1
CBJ14152368317%±0
PIT14183658111%−5
PHI1319419671%±0Ties break on fewer games played, then regulation wins (RW), then wins.
The odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, every night, with each game priced by the same model as PuckLuck's projections. The benchmarks use the 13 full 82-game seasons since 2010-11 with a normal playoff (not 2012-13, 2019-20 or 2020-21); this season has 84 games, so the usual cutline is scaled as a points percentage. How the numbers work