Who is coming, and how likely
Every player in the system who still counts as a rookie, ranked by what he is likely to become: the odds he turns into an NHL regular, and how good the players most like him turned out to be. Draft position starts the estimate; what he does after the draft takes it over.
| # | Player | Age | Drafted | This season | NHL odds | Impact odds | WAR if he sticks | ETA | Score | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Konsta HeleniusC · NHL | 20 | 2024 · #14 | 7 GP · 1-0-1 | 97% | 82% | +1.2 | 2026-27 | 98 | new |
| 2 | Ilia MorozovC · NCAA | 18 | 2026 · #20 | 3 GP · 2-0-2 | 51% | 31% | +0.9 | 2029-30 | 87 | new |
| 3 | Brodie ZiemerR · NCAA | 20 | 2024 · #71 | 2 GP · 0-0-0 | 30% | 12% | +0.7 | 2028-29 | 78 | new |
| 4 | Olivers MurnieksC · NCAA | 18 | 2026 · #124 | 1 GP · 0-0-0 | 12% | 4% | +0.8 | — | 60 | new |
| 5 | Ryan RucinskiC · NCAA | 19 | 2025 · #219 | 2 GP · 0-1-1 | 9% | 5% | +1.0 | — | 56 | new |
| 6 | Ashton SchultzC · USHL | 19 | 2025 · #167 | 32 GP · 9-13-22 | 9% | 4% | +0.8 | — | 53 | new |
| 7 | Vasily ZelenovR · NCAA | 20 | 2024 · #204 | 4 GP · 1-6-7 | 8% | 4% | +0.8 | — | 51 | new |
| 8 | Melvin NovotnyL · NCAA | 19 | 2025 · #195 | 4 GP · 0-0-0 | 10% | 2% | +0.6 | — | 50 | new |
| 9 | Doman SzongothC · OHL | 18 | 2026 · #156 | 9 GP · 0-1-1 | 7% | 4% | +0.8 | — | 49 | new |
| 10 | Prokhor PoltapovL · KHL | 23 | 2021 · #33 | 15 GP · 8-4-12 | 5% | 2% | +0.8 | — | 37 | new |
| 11 | Dylan DumontR · QMJHL | 18 | 2026 · #188 | 9 GP · 2-2-4 | 4% | 2% | +0.8 | — | 33 | new |
| 12 | Jake RichardR · NCAA | 22 | 2022 · #170 | 4 GP · 1-1-2 AHL | 4% | 2% | +0.8 | — | 31 | new |
| 13 | Matous Jan KucharcikC · NCAA | 19 | 2025 · #103 | 2 GP · 1-1-2 | 3% | 2% | +0.8 | — | 27 | new |
| 14 | Riley Fiddler-SchultzC · AHL | 24 | Undrafted | 4 GP · 1-1-2 | 2% | <1% | +0.8 | — | 15 | new |
| 15 | Zac FunkR · ECHL | 23 | Undrafted | 1 GP · 0-0-0 AHL | 1% | <1% | +0.8 | — | 13 | new |
| 16 | Trevor KuntarC · AHL | 25 | 2020 · #89 | 4 GP · 2-2-4 | <1% | <1% | +0.8 | — | 9 | new |
| 17 | Matteo CostantiniC · AHL | 24 | 2020 · #131 | 4 GP · 1-2-3 | <1% | <1% | +0.8 | — | 4 | new |
NHL odds are the chance he becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by age 26, or 100 by 27 for a goalie. Impact odds are the chance he becomes better than the typical regular at his position. WAR if he sticks is the middle outcome among his comparables who made it. The score is a percentile of the expected outcome across every prospect in the league, so forwards, defensemen and goalies sit on one scale. Goalie projections are the least certain on the page: goaltending develops late and the history behind it is thin. How the rankings work