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Gavin McCarthy
Defense · BUF · NCAA

Gavin McCarthy

Age
21
Height
6'2"
Weight
198 lb
Shoots
R
Drafted
2023, round 3, 86th overall
Born
USA
2026-27
AHL · Rochester Americans
Games
3
Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1

His NHL ratings and game log →

Prospect score · 2026-27
Depth

455th of 1,160 prospects in the NHLnew

16th in the BUF system · 8th among its defensemen

+0.6WAR a season if he sticks
Outlook
NHL odds10%Becomes a full-time NHL player — 200 games by 26
Impact odds5%Better than the typical NHL regular among defensemen
Arrival—Too unlikely to stick for an arrival year to mean much
WAR a season if he sticks+0.0+0.6+1.4Low, middle and high outcomes among his comparables who became regulars

Of the 10 players most like him at the same point in their development, 1 became full-time NHL players.

Development

His scoring, converted to an NHL equivalent, against every player his age and position that season. Zero is the average player his age; the band is where his comparables were at each age.

-2-10+1151617181920Age2020-21, age 15, 18 GP: +0.17 vs. his age group (0.05 NHL-equivalent points per game)2021-22, age 16, 53 GP: -0.38 vs. his age group (0.04 NHL-equivalent points per game)2022-23, age 17, 42 GP: +0.73 vs. his age group (0.11 NHL-equivalent points per game)2023-24, age 18, 38 GP: -0.90 vs. his age group (0.03 NHL-equivalent points per game)2024-25, age 19, 39 GP: -0.17 vs. his age group (0.11 NHL-equivalent points per game)2025-26, age 20, 36 GP: +0.06 vs. his age group (0.15 NHL-equivalent points per game)
HimMiddle half of his comps at that ageAverage player his age
Comparables

Past prospects at the same position and the same stage after their draft, matched on draft slot, age, size and league-adjusted production. What they became is already known. The outcome is judged at 26: 200 NHL games by then makes a regular.

#PlayerMatchNHL GP by 26Career NHL GPOutcomeWAR a season
1Luke Green2016 · #79 · at 2162%00Did not stick—
2Michael Downing2013 · #97 · at 2157%00Did not stick—
3Will Borgen2015 · #92 · at 2156%214380Regular+0.37
4Terrance Amorosa2013 · #132 · at 2154%00Did not stick—
5Dillon Simpson2011 · #92 · at 2152%33Did not stick—
6Ryan Shea2015 · #121 · at 2151%31157Did not stick—
7Brandon Hickey2014 · #64 · at 2151%00Did not stick—
8Michael Paliotta2011 · #70 · at 2151%22Did not stick—
9Robbie Russo2011 · #95 · at 2150%1919Did not stick—
10Rasmus Bengtsson2011 · #59 · at 2149%00Did not stick—
Season by season
SeasonGPGAPtsPIM
2026-27AHL · Rochester Americans30118
2025-26Spengler Cup · U.S. Collegiate Selects41010
2025-26NCAA · Boston Univ.364172140
2025-26AHL · Rochester Americans50004
2024-25NCAA · Boston Univ.393131651
2023-24NCAA · Boston Univ.3814541
2022-23WJAC-19 · USA U1910002
2022-23USHL · Muskegon Lumberjacks428192788
2022-23USA-S17 · Team Black40112
2022-23Hlinka Gretzky Cup · USA U18401110
2021-22USHL · Muskegon Lumberjacks532111337
2021-22USA-S16 · Team Kelly530332
2020-2116U AAA · Buffalo Jr. Sabres 16U AAA183111422
2017-18QC Int PW · Buffalo Jr. Sabres50002

The prospect score is a percentile of his expected outcome among every prospect in the league: the chance he becomes a regular, times how good his comparables who did became against others at their position. A player who never sticks counts as zero, which is why a long shot with a high ceiling can rank below a safe bet. All Sabres prospects · How the rankings work