Was a Connor Hellebuyck Trade Really the Cure to the Sabres' Woes?

The Buffalo Sabres were the frontrunners to land a Connor Hellebuyck trade - until they weren't. The Winnipeg Jets agreed to terms to send their star goaltender to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for forwards Dawson Mercer and Nick Bjugstad, goalie Nico Daws, 2026 12th-overall draft selection Alexander Command (the 53rd-best prospect on WARpath's rankings), a 2029 second-round pick, and a 2027 seventh-round pick. The return may be received as modest, but it was something the Sabres were not willing to top.

The move puts an end to speculation dating back to the offseason - one that Buffalo approached with cap efficiency rather than reckless stockpiling. The Sabres traded key contributors Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram, who were both awarded contracts north of $10 million by their respective teams. Defenseman Louis Crevier was acquired by Buffalo as part of the Byram return package, and the Sabres made a separate move to add Olen Zellweger to the blueline.

Crevier and Zellweger have filled Byram's roles with the club, but there was no outside replacement brought in for Tuch. Instead, the Sabres opted to expand the roles of their younger, up-and-coming players, such as Noah Ostlund, Zach Benson, Jiri Kulich, and Konsta Helenius. Early into the 2026-2027 season, this has left a void in the goalscoring department.

Then there's the goaltending, which was a surprise strong suit for the Sabres last season. An injury to Alex Lyon has not allowed Buffalo to take advantage of the same three-man rotation in net, forcing Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen into action in nine of the first 11 games of the season. That, combined with poor finishing, has left the Sabres at the bottom of the Atlantic Division as of Monday.

The State of the Sabres' Goaltending

How bad has the goaltending been, really?

WARpath Buffalo has Luukkonen ranked in the 9th percentile of all NHL goalies so far this season with -0.33 Goals Saved Above Expected. On the surface, that clearly isn't good enough. After a deeper look, over 60% of that can be attributed to his first three games of the season.

In four of the last six, Luukkonen has posted a "B-" grade or better, with an average of 0.61 Goals Saved Above Expected. Even through a tough outing in Toronto, the Finnish netminder has given the Sabres a chance to win, battling through deficits to allow Buffalo comeback opportunities and steal overtime points.

Connor Hellebuyck Trade to Buffalo, Hypothetically

The Sabres were the most common team thrown around in the Hellebuyck trade rumors early on, and re-engaged as recently as last week. By all reports, the three-time Vezina Trophy winner, former MVP, and Olympic Gold Medalist was willing to come to Buffalo.

XWatch on X

So how many more wins would the Sabres have if they employed (and deployed) Hellebuyck in every game this season? Let's dive in.

Over the past three seasons, here are Hellebuyck's GSAx per 60 minutes in the regular season:

2025-2026: 0.15
2024-2025: 0.45
2023-2024: 0.31

In other words, he is averaging about a third of a goal saved per game, keeping opponents to under three goals per game when the league average is over three. That's about 27% of his starts allowing two goals or fewer. Luukkonen has only done that once this season, in 33 minutes of relief against the Florida Panthers.

To apply this to the Sabres this season, though, we'd have to weight the metric. Hellebuyck was noticeably worse last season compared to his previous two, so a 50%, 35%, and 15% weighted average on the past three seasons would account for the drop-off while still allowing room for a bounce back.

That would put Hellebuyck's projected GSAx at 0.28 per 60, without accounting for any potential changes in defensive environment and style of play. We'll go with this number for simplicity.

Here is the breakdown of each game, showing the change in score from Luukkonen to Hellebuyck based on the net GSAx and most common Sabres' goal simulations:

@ CBJ: -3.06 GSAx, 6-3 loss --> net 3.34 GSAx --> 3-3 overtime game (50% win/loss)
vs. CHI: -0.45 GSAx, 4-3 win --> net 0.73 GSAx --> 4-2 win
vs. DAL: -1.97 GSAx, 4-0 loss --> net 2.25 GSAx --> 2-0 loss
vs. FLA: 0.76 GSAx, 5-3 win --> net -0.60 GSAx --> 5-4 win
@ MTL: 0.54 GSAx, 4-3 overtime loss --> net -0.26 GSAx --> 3-3 overtime game (50% win/loss)
@ TOR: -1.13 GSAx, 5-4 overtime win --> net 1.14 GSAx --> 4-3 win
@ MTL: -0.01 GSAx, 4-3 overtime loss --> net 0.29 GSAx --> 3-3 overtime game (50% win/loss)
vs. PHI: 0.85 GSAx, 3-1 loss --> net -0.57 GSAx --> 4-1 loss
@ WSH: +0.30 GSAx, 4-3 overtime loss --> net -0.02 GSAx --> 3-3 overtime game (50% win/loss)

As you can see, the only true outcome affected is the season opener against the Blue Jackets. The Sabres would project to gain at least one point in the standings, and four coin flips at four other points, depending on Hellebuyck's performance in overtime and shootouts.

Essentially, they'd be at least 7th in the Atlantic Division instead of last, with the potential to be sitting closer to an early-season playoff position. The steady goaltending may not have led to a big improvement, after all. This points to an even bigger issue with the Sabres.

Sabres' Scoring Woes

The Sabres are shooting at 10.7% this season, down from 12.3% last season. A 1.6% difference may not seem like a lot, but over the course of a 2,300-shot season, that amounts to about a 37-goal difference. That's nearly half a goal per game.

We can go player by player and assess who is struggling to score, but aside from Jack Quinn, the answer is really across the board. Josh Norris is the only other qualifying forward beating 12.3%. Benson, who is leading the Sabres in On-Ice Expected Goals-For, has yet to find the back of the net.

The obvious answer is that things will balance out. The average team shooting percentage this season is 11.4%. If Buffalo can find a healthy balance between this season and last, they'll be right around that mark.

How much would shooting at last season's rate have helped the Sabres in the early going? In breaking things down, you may be surprised:

@ CBJ: 26 shots, 6-3 loss --> net 0.20 goals at 12.3% --> 6-3 loss
vs. CHI: 28 shots, 4-3 win --> net -0.56 goals at 12.3% --> 3-3 overtime game (50% win/loss)
vs. MIN: 28 shots, 3-2 overtime win --> net 0.44 goals at 12.3% --> 3-2 win
vs. DAL: 26 shots, 4-0 loss --> net 3.20 goals at 12.3% --> 4-3 loss
vs. UTA: 24 shots, 4-1 loss --> net 1.95 goals at 12.3% --> 4-3 loss
vs. FLA: 32 shots, 5-3 win --> net -1.06 goals at 12.3% --> 4-3 win
@ MTL: 16 shots, 4-3 overtime loss --> net -1.03 goals at 12.3% --> 3-2 loss
@ TOR: 35 shots, 5-4 overtime win --> net 0.31 goals at 12.3% --> 4-4 overtime game (50% win/loss)
@ MTL: 26 shots, 4-3 overtime loss --> net 0.20 goals at 12.3% --> 3-3 overtime game (50% win/loss)
vs. PHI: 28 shots, 3-1 loss --> net 2.44 goals at 12.3% --> 3-3 overtime game (50% win/loss)
@ WSH: 21 shots, 4-3 overtime loss --> net -0.42 goals at 12.3% --> 3-2 loss

What does the breakdown tell us? Well, the Sabres would actually have fewer standings points if they shot at 12.3% across the board. This shows that in games they shot well, they shot really well. And in games they shot poorly, they shot really poorly.

What About Both?

If you're reading this screaming that both goaltending and finishing are combining to be the issue, well, there's an answer for that too. WARpath's WAR Box feature updates live during each game, displaying a sliding meter showing which team deserves to win, based on Expected Goals and the game situation.

If Buffalo is down by two goals or more in the game and pours it on offensively, the Expected Goals count for less, since the defending team is focused more on protecting the lead than generating offense. This has happened many times this season, so the "Deserves to Win" meter for each game should paint a good picture of what expected goaltending and shooting would've gotten them.

Here is their share on the meter for each game:

@ CBJ: 59% (Win)
vs. CHI: 59% (Win)
vs. MIN: 66% (Win)
vs. DAL: 51% (Win)
vs. UTA: 35% (Loss)
vs. FLA: 49% (Loss)
@ MTL: 41% (Loss)
@ TOR: 52% (Win)
@ MTL: 47% (Loss)
vs. PHI: 43% (Loss)
@ WSH: 37% (Loss)

The picture is clear. Five wins, six losses, 10 standings points. That's one less than they currently have, suggesting the Sabres have stolen a point somewhere along the way despite poor overall goaltending and shooting.

Could having Hellebuyck in a large share of those 11 games have stolen another point or two? Sure, looking at the Florida game at 49% and the second Montreal game at 47%, that could be as high as 14 points total with better-than-expected goaltending. That would put Buffalo on the verge of the early-season playoff picture, and three points better than they are now.

Conclusion on the State of the Sabres

It is very possible that an eventual Lyon return from injury and a spike in goalscoring from the likes of Benson, Helenius, and Kulich could lift the Sabres to where they need to go. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is on an uptrend, which is normal for a goalie who has established highs and lows throughout the majority of his NHL career.

Should the Sabres look at alternative options (say, Dylan Larkin?) to improve their team and add more certainty to what they are getting every night? Yes, absolutely they should.

Is it necessary? With improvement not only possible, but likely, only revisionist history will tell us for sure if the patient approach is the right one.